Perth Hoodoo... Will it Help?

What with the all the triumphalism about in the English media and the downright suicidal tone in the Australian media, you would be forgiven for thinking that England will destroy Australia for a decade this Thursday.

During an Ashes series abroad it's traditional for the Aussie media to be raising Shane Warne onto a pedestal. But things have got so grim for them that this time around it's because he's shtupping a middle aged lady with great cans who has appeared in some adverts, a dress held together with safety pins and was cast aside in favour of a skanky prostitute by floppy haired fop Hugh Grant. If you were English you might be asking why he has to fly round the world to score these days. But then that's probably because he already has every woman's telephone number in Australia on his mobile.

And actually things are pretty grim for Australia. So bad so that Greg Chappell has tried to post-rationalise dropping Johnson as a "rotation policy". They've picked someone called "Beer" to give the sub-editors on Aussie newspapers something else to pun with rather than simply variations on "Selectors are idiots, team is a disgrace". And one paper has called for the resignation of chief selector Andrew Hilditch. But only after the World Cup. Crikey. The press must be hoping he stuffs that up too so they can carry on writing this stuff until well into April.

So the question is... how bad actually IS it in the Aussie camp? Are they feeling the pressure? Well... there are very few of them claiming they are going to win the Ashes now. In fact all talk of targetting batsmen is out of the window. The press are hoping that Jimmy A has screwed himself by flying back to the UK. (Interestingly he claims to have stayed on Aussie time for his visit - very easy with the UK dark for 24 hours a day at the moment). They also seem to be hinting that the England players will be so exhausted from catching up with 44 days of no conjugals that they will be unable to stand on Thursday never mind bat, bowl or field. And there is some crowing about Cooky not batting for three consecutive millennia on a pudding in Melbourne.

This is STILL not a terrible cricket side even if the preparation and background work from the selectors and media people has been poor. Ponting, Clarke and Hussey are still good bats. Watson is a good number six who just happens to be opening. Haddin is as good as any keeper batsman, Gilchrist aside, that Australia have produced including Healey. There are runs in them there hills... even if the openers look a bit iffy.

The bowling does look a bit popgun at the moment but Perth is just the place (if the curator is to be believed) for a fast / seam attack to prosper. Especially if it's green to start with. That will be a good toss to lose. And England have already fallen over once in the series and haven't dominated in any of the State games in the way that did on the flat Test tracks we've all become used to.

You sense that the Aussies are desperate to have a result wicket here. They cannot afford to lose, but a draw simply puts more pressure on them to win two on the bounce on tracks that are not expected to be wicket fests. There is some debate as to what a four day wicket in Australia is like but that's what the curator has prepared he claims and monkeys to the hierarachy at the WACA who would prefer the game to go the distance.

So this has all the hallmarks of a shootout, here and now, for the urn. Win this and the Aussies only need to win one more game. Lose it and they have to win two to even draw the series, Ashes gone. The only fly in this particular ointment is that actually England have been better in seaming / quick conditions than Australia recently. Game well and truly on.